[서울=뉴시스]박미선 기자 = 스페이스X가 기업공개(IPO)를 통해 1조1조7700억 달러(약 2705조 원)의 기업가치를 인정받으려면 인공지능(AI) 사업 부문 매출이 2030년까지 약 100배 성장해야 한다는 전망이 나왔다.

4일(현지 시간) 파이낸셜타임스(FT)에 따르면 스페이스X IPO 대표 주관사인 골드만삭스는 잠재 투자자들에게 AI 사업 부문 매출이 지난해 32억 달러(약 5조 원)에서 2030년 3220억 달러(약 498조 원)로 증가할 것으로 내다봤다. 같은 기간 스페이스X 전체 매출은 지난해 187억 달러(약 29조 원)에서 4740억 달러(약 233조원)로 늘어날 것으로 예상됐다.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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이번 전망은 스페이스X가 추진 중인 IPO 투자자 설명회(로드쇼) 과정에서 투자자들에게 제시된 것으로 알려졌다. FT는 이 같은 수치가 최근 미국 증시를 사상 최고치로 끌어올린 AI 투자 열풍이 얼마나 공격적인 성장 가정에 기반하고 있는 지를 보여준다고 평가했다.

스페이스X는 원래 인류를 다행성 종으로 만들고 화성에 새로운 거주지를 건설하는 것을 목표로 내세워 왔다. 그러나 올해 xAI를 합병한 이후 AI가 회사 전략의 중심으로 떠올랐다. 올해 1분기 자본지출의 75% 이상이 AI 사업에 투입됐으며, 회사가 제시한 성장 기회의 93%도 AI 분야에 집중돼 있다.

IPO 투자설명서에 따르면 기업가치 산정의 핵심 전제는 AI 사업 부문인 xAI의 전체잠재시장(TAM)이 최대 26조 5000억 달러(약 4경 516조 원)에 달한다는 것이다. 이는 스타링크 위성 인터넷과 우주사업 부문 TAM 약 2조 달러(약 3094조 원)를 크게 웃도는 규모다.

골드만삭스는 스타링크 매출이 2030년 1440억 달러(약 222조 원), 로켓 사업 매출은 83억 달러(약 12조8000억 원)에 그칠 것으로 전망했다. 이는 AI 사업 매출 전망치의 절반 이하 수준이다.

아울러 스페이스X의 조정 EBITDA(상각 전 영업이익)가 지난해 66억 달러(약 10조 원)에서 2030년 3520억 달러(약 542조 원)로 급증하고, 지난해 138억 달러(약 21조 원) 마이너스였던 잉여현금흐름(FCF)이 2031년에는 720억 달러(약 110조 원) 플러스로 전환될 것으로 전망했다.